When prophecy (about terrorism) fails
A year ago today, American media and politicians predicted a "Day of Jihad." It didn't happen — but it did incite anti-Palestinian violence.

Last year, seemingly millions of Americans — including people I knew personally — were convinced that Hamas had declared October 13 the “Global Day of Jihad” and was poised to unleash terror on American cities. Schools were closed, people stayed home from work, and police stepped up patrols.
Of course, no such thing happened. There never was a “Global Day of Jihad” or a wave of attacks on American soil. The reaction to the rumors did incite violence, when a talk radio fan hopped up on paranoid fantasies stabbed his six-year-old Palestinian neighbor, Wadea al-Fayoume, to death the next day.
I had assumed that, once October 13 had passed without incident, Americans would realize they had been suckered. Instead, it was quickly forgotten. None of the people who had promoted the “Global Day of Jihad” suffered a hit to their credibility. They simply moved on to the next moral panic.
It was exactly the kind of story that needed a follow up. My editors at Reason Magazine were quite supportive of the idea. Last week, they published my feature, the fruit of months of reporting and collecting documents under the Freedom of Information Act. The documents, which include an exclusive FBI memo, are posted to my DocumentCloud account.
To be honest, I was expecting to write about government agencies using terrorism fears to justify their budget, as has happened in the past. Instead, when the “Day of Jihad” panic hit, law enforcement turned out to be the more coolheaded actor—with a few exceptions. While tabloid journalists and firebrand politicians screamed from the rooftop that the terrorists were coming, the FBI and various police departments tried to convince the public that they had everything under control.
However, law enforcement’s attempts to calm the community became part of the cycle. Political pressure and media coverage forced police agencies to address the alleged threat; those police statements about vigilance then became evidence to journalists and politicians that the “Day of Jihad” was a real phenomenon to worry about.
A wave of violent Hamas attacks on October 13 was quite a specific prediction that did not come true. Like the UFO cultists in When Prophecy Fails, the true believers in counterterrorism simply moved the goalposts. The New York Post covered pro-Palestinian protests as if those were the “Day of Jihad” all along. Congress continued to grill the FBI about continued threats to the homeland, and the FBI agreed that something bad could still happen.
Of course, the terrorism panic was also hard to separate from the effort to manufacture consent for war. The “Day of Jihad” panic was useful in getting Americans to feel that Israel’s war is their war, even though Hamas does not have any history of targeting America. Some hawks actually seemed to wish that America would be attacked, in order to make Israel’s case.
So what are you waiting for? Go on, read the article!